This graph shows the double dip recession of the 1980’s, and the Business Monitor forecast from the beginning of the recession until now.

analysis by Gina Hamilton
Coastal Journal staff

WASHINGTON D.C. -- Less than six months ago, the notion that our economy might decline again after an initial strong recovery in 2009 was scoffed at, but today, it almost seems like the economic consensus.

With interest rates still near zero, and lawmakers unwilling to pony up with more much needed stimulus funds in an election year, economists fear a ‘double dip’ ... that is, a second recession before we are completely out of the first one.

Last Friday's government jobs report added to the gloom and the sense that the recovery is losing steam. The Labor Department said private employers added about 83,000 jobs last month, considerably fewer than the 112,000 that analysts had forecast.

analysis by Gina Hamilton
Coastal Journal staff

WASHINGTON D.C. -- Congress is rushing this week to complete the most important financial services reform package since the Great Depression, ahead of the August recess.  Meanwhile, predictably, banking lobbyists are fighting the package tooth and claw.

The industry is pushing for provisions to undercut the Volcker Rule, which among other things would forbid banks from using their own capital to make risky wagers on the markets, and would force them to sell off riskier assets, such as hedge funds and private equity firms, and sets a limit on the liability banks can hold.

American economist and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker devised the plan to restrict banks from making certain kinds of speculative investments if they are not on behalf of their customers. Volcker has argued that such speculative activity played a key role in the financial crisis of 2007–2010. He was earlier appointed by Obama as the chair of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, a board created on February 6, 2009.  Obama endorsed the Volcker Rule in January.  The next month, five previous Treasury Secretaries ... both Republican and Democratic ... also endorsed the plan.

WASHINGTON D.C. — What employs almost half a million people and still depresses the overall employment picture?

If you guessed the U.S. Census, give yourself a gold star. In May, the Census employed over 431,000 Americans, but private, permanent employment took a nosedive.

Private employers added just 41,000 jobs, down from 218,000 in April, and the fewest since January.

The unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 9.9% during the same period, but the rate is tied to claims for unemployment insurance for that month, and many unemployed people are being dropped from the roles because they have exhausted their insurance, taken part time work, or are leaving the work force for a variety of reasons. These may include reaching retirement age, giving up looking for work while children are out of school, and returning to school themselves under special government programs that help the unemployed advance their own educations. About 15 million Americans were unemployed in May.